POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – According to recent research, climate change has the potential to nearly triple the extent of land consumed by wildfires across Europe annually by the year 2100. The study projects a 192% rise in yearly burned regions under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global temperature increase. This research follows significant wildfire events in 2026 that impacted areas in Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The core climate factors identified as driving these fires include hot, dry, and windy conditions, as emphasized in the analysis.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study utilized two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. The scientists examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, alongside a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway equates to roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the higher one approaches about 3.6°C. Socioeconomic variables were kept constant in different experimental setups to analyze their influence on wildfire trends independently.
In the case of the lower-emissions scenario, one model predicted an approximate 39% increase in annual land burned by the end of the century, while a second model suggested a potential decline under lower warming conditions, reflecting a different interpretation of historical human impacts. Conversely, under the high-emissions pathway, both models indicated significantly larger growth in burned areas, with the most notable increases occurring around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe. Some of these regions historically experienced relatively infrequent fires.
Model results indicate emissions are key to fire extent
The research revealed that factors such as fire weather and fire-management capacity are crucial in shaping future wildfire activity across Europe. Additionally, variables like population density, vegetation changes, and land use influence outcomes, especially at regional scales. Maik Billing, the lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which spearheaded the study, explained that the analysis distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather conditions and human influences that can alter fire spread.
The study suggests that ongoing advancements in wildfire prevention, early detection, and firefighting efforts could reduce the burned area by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking these improvements. The potential reduction was greater under the lower-emissions scenario and less significant under stronger warming conditions. Despite continued enhancements in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still see increased fire activity under severe climate change. Thomas Hickler, a co-author working at the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, added that management alone cannot fully counteract the effects of higher temperatures.
Effective fire management can help control wildfire spread
These findings emerge amid a particularly severe wildfire season in Europe in 2026, when dry conditions and extreme heat waves intensified fire outbreaks, especially in Southern Europe, though fires also spread further north. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean basin, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The researchers noted that these patterns are a reflection of changing fire weather conditions as rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells become more common.
The study emphasizes that the projected 192% rise should not be viewed as an unavoidable certainty; it is a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions within the study. The scientists identified a much smaller increase under lower emissions and significant reductions through improved fire management strategies. Nonetheless, they pointed out that even with better fire control measures, fire activity could still increase in roughly 55% of Europe’s vulnerable regions if climate change progresses strongly. Ultimately, the study underscores that emissions levels, fire weather, and the capacity for effective fire management are key drivers shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.