GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, representing a notable rise from the 1.9 percent estimate provided in March. The WTO attributed this upward revision to robust trade activity in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the initial six months of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence applications emerged as a significant contributor to merchandise trade growth during this period, with goods such as semiconductors and servers—crucial AI-enabling products—accounting for 47 percent of the overall global merchandise trade increase. Trade in these items surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year, and the WTO also noted that worldwide expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The robust demand for computing hardware played a pivotal role in supporting trade, especially as other sectors faced challenges stemming from conflict and transportation constraints.
Supply chains on a global scale also demonstrated adaptability to pressures across key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by about 24 percent in the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent during the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from other suppliers mitigated the overall decline in crude oil exports to approximately 6 percent, with global LNG exports falling only 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput worldwide saw an increase of 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts in trade through alternative ports and routes.
AI-driven goods bolster international merchandise trade
This more optimistic outlook for goods starkly contrasts with the more subdued expectations for commercial services trade, as the WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel, with international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Overall, arrivals in the first half of the year were only 0.4 percent higher, and growth in travel expenditures also slowed considerably from the first to the second quarter.
Despite these setbacks, other service sectors experienced stronger performance; for example, exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with the WTO estimating a 12 percent growth in the second quarter. Financial services exports also grew by 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The organization predicts that commercial services trade volume will expand by 6.4 percent in 2027. Moreover, it projects global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by 2.9 percent in the subsequent year.
Regional disparities persist in trade growth forecasts
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade exhibit considerable variation across different parts of the world. According to the WTO, Asia is expected to lead with a merchandise export increase of 9.9 percent in 2026, while North America is projected to grow by 5.7 percent, and Africa by 5.6 percent. South America is forecast to see a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe is anticipated to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the most significant downturn, with merchandise exports predicted to fall by 17.2 percent over the year.
Similarly, import growth varies markedly among regions, with Asia expected to see a 9.5 percent increase, Africa at 8.9 percent, North America at 1.4 percent, and Europe at 0.5 percent. The Middle East’s merchandise imports are forecast to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest figures highlight both the resilience of trade and the uneven exposure to ongoing economic and geopolitical disruptions across different regions.