BRUSSELS, Belgium / EuroWire.IO / – Europe is entering the 2026-27 winter heating season with its lowest natural gas storage levels in more than a decade, according to the International Energy Agency. In its Global Gas Security Review 2026, released on November 3, the IEA said EU storage sites were starting the season with inventories at their lowest since 2013. Tight market conditions could extend well into 2027, it said.
The agency warned that smaller storage buffers could leave Europe more exposed to shortages if the weather is colder than expected or gas flows are disrupted further. Under a scenario of colder-than-average temperatures and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, EU storage could fall below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027, the IEA estimated, according to Oil & Gas 360.
Low inventories could also keep European demand strong through summer 2027 as countries refill storage ahead of the following winter. That would prolong pressure on global gas markets. Europe is likely to rely more heavily on imports of liquefied natural gas to meet winter demand. Storage sites were 65% full at the end of August, about 17 percentage points below the five-year average, TASS reported.
LNG supply set for 3% fall
The IEA projected that global LNG supply will fall by about 3% in 2026, or almost 20 billion cubic metres. Global gas demand is expected to decline by around 1.5%, or nearly 65 billion cubic metres. The drop partly reflects lower industrial gas use in Europe and a switch from gas to coal in the power sector across several Asian countries. EU gas import values had already fallen in the first quarter.
LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by more than 60 billion cubic metres between March and October because of restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Oil & Gas 360 reported. Growing supply from North America and more flexible international trading arrangements helped offset some of the losses. LNG production outside the Gulf rose by about 14% over the period. Asian buyers doubled their LNG imports from the Atlantic Basin, mainly from the United States.
Prices hit highest since 2022-23 crisis
The effective halt of LNG flows through the strait between March and October pushed Asian and European gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022-23 energy crisis. European benchmark gas prices averaged nearly $20 per million British thermal units over the period, around 70% higher than a year earlier. Asian spot LNG averaged $21.50, an increase of nearly 80%. Oil markets have also been shaped by talks over Hormuz.
The IEA stressed the importance of stronger international cooperation on gas supply security and more flexible trading and storage arrangements to withstand shocks and limit price volatility. EU rules require member states to fill storage to 90% at any point between October 1 and December 1, with some flexibility in difficult market conditions. Europe now faces the dual challenge of meeting winter demand while rebuilding reserves next summer.