ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization has projected global cereal output for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s record. Although this decline indicates a reduction from the peak, the total still positions as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. This new estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the forecast made in July, with the annual reduction amounting to 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Specifically, maize production worldwide is expected to reach 1.309 billion tonnes, following diminished crop prospects that led to a downward adjustment from prior estimates. The ongoing summer heatwaves and dry conditions have negatively impacted yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates also prompted downward revisions for India and Paraguay, but these were partly offset by better-than-anticipated yields in Argentina and Brazil, both of which are projected to produce well above-average maize quantities in 2026.
The forecast for world wheat production has increased slightly to 810.7 million tonnes, an addition of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. This upward adjustment was driven by improved yield outlooks for Canada and Morocco, each gaining about 1.5 million tonnes. Additionally, projections for Russia and Ukraine have been raised, though expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom declined due to dry weather conditions. Despite these revisions, global wheat production is still anticipated to be 3.8% below that of 2025, maintaining its position as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines influence the overall cereal forecast
The forecast for global rice production in the 2026/27 season stands at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from increased figures for Myanmar and strong yields during the main crop in Sri Lanka. These gains have balanced out reductions observed in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO has projected total cereal utilization at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, representing a modest increase of 0.2% over the previous season. While consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, wheat use is forecast to decline from last season’s elevated levels. World rice consumption is expected to reach 559 million tonnes, driven largely by population growth and increased food demand. Feed use remains significant as well, including barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Stockpiles remain at comfortable levels historically
At the end of the 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are expected to be 947.2 million tonnes, a slight decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from earlier projections but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio globally is forecast at 31.6%, slightly lower than the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. While wheat reserves are projected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, lower inventories of maize and barley have contributed to a diminished overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is expected to reach 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates. Nonetheless, this figure remains below the record volume of 2025/26. The growth is primarily driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina projected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, although overall rice shipments continue to be 1.9% below the peak reached in 2025.