MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has officially established an objective to reach 662 million tonnes of yearly coal output by 2050 as part of a recently endorsed industry development initiative. This figure is embedded within the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved this plan via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, export, and sector advancement.
The strategy delineates four different pathways for the coal industry extending through 2050. According to the primary target scenario, production is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and then increase to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, ultimately reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. The alternative scenarios envisage lower 2050 production volumes, with estimates ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes under the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia also set export goals; the primary scenario forecasts coal exports of 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic coal consumption and international market sales.
Goals for production and export volumes
The government’s initiative emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while also expanding coal resource development, with particular focus on the coal-rich regions of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which contributed 48.3% to national production in 2024. The strategy aims to increase this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports possessing over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
Further, the plan sets specific goals for coal processing and mining methodologies. In 2024, the proportion of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9%. By 2050, this figure is projected to rise to between 74% and 76%. Open-pit mining, which accounted for 78.4% of production in 2024, is expected to expand its share to between 82% and 85% in the long term. The document also details measures related to productivity enhancement, technological innovation, safety improvements, and environmental standards.
The coal development plan extends to 2050
Russia will implement this plan through three distinct phases: the initial phase, which lasts until 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting the industry; the second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will prioritize coal utilization, processing technology, and regional logistics; and the third phase, from 2037 to 2050, will encompass broader development goals. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution of these stages in collaboration with other federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, with annual reports mandated to be submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development under governmental directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised program during a government session on September 21, replacing Russia’s previous coal industry plan, which covered up to 2035 and was approved in 2020. Novak expressed that the new initiative projects a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an estimated overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target is considered the primary scenario within the plan, not a guaranteed forecast, but rather a goal to be achieved.